Wednesday 30 December 2015

"Whose Life Is It Anyway?" or "The Concreteness of Numbers"

The deaths in Paris and San Bernadino reflect a growing madness in the world. Human lives seemingly worthless in the eyes of their "enemies".

Governments and nations go to war. Sometimes for noble causes. Sometimes for less worthwhile reasons. Civilians and children in particular are simply the victims caught in the middle of this madness. I began thinking about how many civilians or "non-combatants" have paid the ultimate price for someone else's war, someone else's conflict, someone else's egotism.

The numbers are frightening. A bit of simple research can create a number of different lists, each showing a different perspective on the madness. A simple one, which is based on an article published in the Guardian in April 2013 shows that in 2012 two countries or territories stood out as the most dangerous place to be a civilian:


  1. Syria - where 41 civilians per 100,000 population are killed each year.
  2. Gaza - where 40 civilians per 100,000 population are killed each year.
  3. Iraq - the next highest with  21 per 100,000
  4. Afghanistan - 7 per 100,000

That's equates to 40 people killed in a town like Worcester EVERY year or 5 in a small town like Midsomer Norton, or 200 EVERY year in a city the size of Manchester. It would translate into 900 killed per year in Paris, or 3500 in London or New York. Remembering 911 in which 2977 were killed in one day comes the closest to the intensity felt by civilians in Syria and Gaza year in year out.

The scale of the deaths in Syria and Gaza is staggering. It dwarfs  the 130 killed in Paris. So who is doing the killing and what can WE do to intervene to stop this slaughter?

Deadliest Current Conflicts:

  1. Syria  (50,373 in 2015 / 76,021 in 2014 / 220,000-340,000 cumulatively)
  2. Afghanistan (34,475 / 14,277 / 1.2m - 2m)
  3. Iraq (15,128 / 21,000 - 46,000 / 224,000 - 1m)
  4. Nigeria (10,882 / 10,849 / 20,700)

Whilst Syria is the deadliest at the moment, it is still a relatively recent conflict. With the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq going back many years the death tolls have likely topped 1 million in both, of which a large proportion will be civilians. Many of these will be directly killed by Allied forces, at least in the tens of thousands in each conflict, if not in the hundreds of thousands. These numbers make 911 and Paris look relatively small scale - and we wonder why the Arab and Muslim world is so anti-American and anti-British.


The number of civilian deaths is the direct and, if history is a guide, inevitable consequence of the style of western military action, particularly bombing which is by nature more indiscriminate in impact. We even invented a term to make it sound acceptable - collateral damage. Our actions in Afghanistan and Iraq may have removed one threat each but in doing so killed many innocents and left the countries with power vacuums ripe for Islamic extremism.

The Five Deadliest Terror Groups in 2014:

  1. Boko Haram (6644 terror deaths & c.800 battle deaths)
  2. ISIS (6073 terror & c.20000 in battle)
  3. Taliban (3477 & c.1500
  4. Fulani (1299 & c.900)
  5. al-Shabaab (1021 & c.2400)

When you include the battle deaths the numbers look like this:
  1. ISIS - c.26000
  2. Taliban - c.18000
  3. Boko Haram - c.7400
  4. al-Shabaab - c.3400
  5. Fulani - c.2200
What is notable about these groups is that they are all Islamist groups seeking extreme Islamic dominance, possibly with the exception of Fulani which might be viewed as a violent terrorist group who happen to be mostly Islamic.

It is clear that none of these groups have any concerns for the people they are attacking and seeking to dominate. It is also clear that if these groups are not stopped, they will simply go on imposing reigns of terror on whole communities, particularly ISIS, the Taliban and Boko Haram.

If we have any concerns for humanity we must come together to end these reigns of terror. We will need to be careful however that our response to terror is not a new terror from the skies, but one which will be accepted by those being freed from the Islamist groups as well as the wider international community. This is something that so far the international community and the US and UK in particular have failed to do.

Syrian Civilian Deaths

According to the Syrian Observatory of Human Rights (SOHR), which is an organisation considered by Russian and Syrian Governments as being biased in its reporting, a total of  22436 civilians were killed out of 73447 total deaths in 2013, 17790 civilians out of 76021 in 2014 and 11936 out of 50496 till the end of November 2015.

According to the Syrian Network for Human Rights (SNHR), which is an organisation which the UN considers independent and robust in its reporting and a reliable source, there were a total of 19553 deaths up to the end of November 2015, of which 4343 (22%) were gunmen and 15210 (78%) were civilians. These figures almost certainly exclude Syrian Government forces killed in battle. The civilian deaths include at least 3024 children, 2304 women, and 890 people who died under torture. At least 3 children died under torture by ISIL, probably more.


The Government of Assad killed 11371 civilians and 3421 gunmen (76% of recorded deaths). ISIL killed 1382 civilians and 670 gunmen (10%). Armed opposition groups killed 1019 civilians and 40 gunmen (5%). The Russians have killed 522 civilians and 20 gunmen (3%)  in just two months, whilst the US coalition has killed 157 civilians and 3 gunmen (1%).

Of the 3024 children's deaths recorded the Government has killed 2373, Armed Opposition groups have killed 246, ISIL 111, Russia 108 and the US coalition has killed 61.

Most of those killed under torture were at the hands of the Government (852 out of 887). ISIL were the next highest with 10.

If you just stop and think about the numbers of civilians, including women and children, killed in Syria, and in particular by the Government of Assad, you cannot help but be moved. Even the US coalition has killed more civilians in Syria than the ISIL attacks in Paris killed earlier this year.

The numbers are staggering and lead to only one conclusion: These deaths must be stopped.

But what about the other most deadly place to be a civilian? Let's look at some of the numbers there...

Palestinian & Israeli Civilian Deaths

According to B'Tselem, the Israeli Information Centre for Human Rights in the Occupied Territories, 10,798 people have been killed in Israel and the Occupied Territories since September 2000 (the start of the Second Intifada). 81% of those killed were Palestinians (excluding 6% where Palestinians killed other Palestinians) and 11% were Israelis. The remaining 2% were foreigners.

Somewhere between 52%-60% of Palestinian deaths were non-combatants whilst 65% of Israeli deaths were civilians. Women made up 5% of Palestinians killed and 20% of Israelis, possibly reflecting the fact that the IDF has women front line soldiers. Children made up 21% of Palestinian deaths and 11% of Israelis, possibly reflectinfg that Palestinian minors were drawn into the conflict with older family members. 50% of Israelis were killed on theirown land whilst 77% of Palestinians died on theirs.


Despite these differences between Palestinian and Israeli casualties, the figures for both sides show just how big the impact on innocent civilians  was, and in particular the 1961 children who lost their lives in the last 15 years. That is 2 Palestinian children every week for 15 years and 1 Israeli child every 5-6 weeks.


Operation Protective Edge in the summer of 2014 saw 66 Israelis (2 civilians) and at least 1767 Palestinians killed from a population of about 1.8m, of which 200 were women  and 431 children. If half the rest were civilians not engaged in fighting that would be 1200 civilian killed or 67 killed in every 100,000. If this was factored up to the size of New York or London, with a population of 8.5m each, this would equate to well over 5000 civilian deaths or getting on for twice the impact of 911.


What is clear is that the Israel response to Palestinian rocket attacks (remembering these are attacks against an occupying army) has neither been proportionate nor reasonable, even given Israel's right to protect its citizens from rocket attacks. It has NEVER been proportionate and it is time the world spoke the truth and stood up against such crimes against humanity, and in particular children.




Concluding thoughts...

Any person with an ounce of humanity will be moved deeply by these huge numbers of civilian casualties- the innocent men, women and particularly children caught up in the middle of conflict and whose lives are cut short. All sides have committed crimes against humanity, although some are particularly violent and seemingly unconcerned at killing non-combatants or deliberately target them.


We must do all we can to stop the killing of civilians and in particular children whilst recognising that conflicts do happened for various reasons including preserving some (sometimes bizarre)definition of national security.


We must take action to intervene in the bloodiest of ongoing conflicts, where large numbers of civilians will inevitably lose their lives. In Syria. In Afghanistan. In Iraq. In Nigeria where each year 10,000 are killed. And in Palestine, and in particular Gaza, which whilst considerably less in numbers than the other 4 conflicts, is the most intense of any in the world today if Operation Protective Edge is used as a measure.


Over the next few posts I'll be considering each conflict separately to discuss what WE can do to make the world a better and safer place.

M.